老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：94 P
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 02 月 21 日 08 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 02 月 00 日 00 時
94P.INVEST.15kts.993mb.10S.175W

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.2S 179.1W, APPROXIMATELY 330NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA,
FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
VERY BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENT ZONE WITH DISORGANIZED AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (05-
10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AMPLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 94P WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TROUGH
AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD IN 24-36 HOURS APPROXIMATELY 200NM SOUTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

dom

正與旁邊的95P快速東南移，數值預測發展空間不大

老農民版夜神月

FMS編號10F,不看好其能成旋

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 220902 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10F CENTRE [1003 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.0
178.5W AT 220600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD10F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH
POOR ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND EAST
OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS LOW BUT HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH. SST IS AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE PICKING UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT SOUTHEAST WITH
SLIGHT DEEPENING.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

dom

JTWC06Z升格TD

94P INVEST 210223 0000 14.3S 176.7W SHEM 25 1004

老農民版夜神月

現位於斐濟東北方向,將逐漸朝較高緯度移動,FMS於23Z將其降格為了低壓

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 232320 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S
175.0W AT 231800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD10F HAS WEAKENED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BEEN DECLASSIFIED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AT 232100UTC.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.