簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-11 06:11
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JTWC21Z報則認為二巔已過，暫不上望更高強度
WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 75.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 75.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.5S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.9S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.4S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.0S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.5S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.0S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.6S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 75.1E.
10MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1040 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101138Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT THE
ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WITH A LARGE OUTER BAND
NEARLY ENCIRCLING THE INNER EYEWALL. BASED ON THIS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5/7.0 (PGTW), T6.5/7.0 (FMEE), AND
T6.5/6.5 (FIMP), AS WELL AS A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 126 KNOTS, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KTS. THE INTITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE IN EIR
IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE ERC OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS RESULTED IN A
PLATEAU IN INTENSITY. TC 24S HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT TAU 72 AND TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU
120. BEYOND TAU 72, A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED,
WITH INCREASED UPWELLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLDER SSTS, WHICH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE
FORECAST TRACK WAS PLACED NORTHWEST OF CONSENSUS DUE TO NAVGEM AND
GALWEM CONTINUING TO BE EASTERN-MOST OUTLIERS. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
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