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27S.Odette 遭26S併吞

簽到天數: 389 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2021-4-1 13:48 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
  一級熱帶氣旋  
編號:27 S ( 23 U )
名稱:Odette
015524r8grhhmzuembehog.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2021 04 01 13
JTWC升格日期:2021 04 05 03
命名日期  :2021 04 09 09
撤編日期  :2021 04 10 20
登陸地點  :


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM):45 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):45 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   :988 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

90S.INVEST.20kts-1004mb-8.0S-102.2E
ADBBC22A-E264-4CEF-9551-AFEF6322E441.jpeg
以上資料來自:BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
s6815711 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 1334 天

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老農民版夜神月|2021-4-2 05:22 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-4-2 05:23 編輯

BoM展望中有提到此系統,並對其評級為Low
Another low may form near 10S 103E on Friday, to the west of Christmas Island. It is likely to move south and be slow to develop. There is a Low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone over the weekend, by which time it should be far enough south to have no direct impact on Christmas Island.

No other significant systems are expected in the region for at least the next three days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low

20210401.2050.himawari-8.ir.90S.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.8.1S.102.4E.100pc.jpg 20210401.1831.gw1.89pct89h89v.90S.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.8.1S.102.4E.93pc.jpg 90S_tracks_latest (3).png 90S_gefs_latest (5).png
sio (17).png
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dom|2021-4-2 14:08 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM編號23U
Another tropical low (23U) is starting to form near 9S 103E, to the west northwest of Christmas Island. It is likely to move south to southeast and be slow to develop, and there is a Low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Sunday. It should be far enough south to have no direct impact on Christmas Island if it does develop, however shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to increase over the Island during the weekend.
During next week there is an increased risk of 23U developing into a tropical cyclone, however it should be over open waters well to the northwest of the WA mainland and well to the south of Christmas Island.
No other significant systems are expected in the region for at least the next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday: Low
Monday: Low
70AF9770-5965-4AAC-8D44-CF5848C4EF9D.jpeg
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dom|2021-4-2 16:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
    (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.1S
103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020010Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. 90S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 30C, AND AMBIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL
MODELS GENERALLY EXPECT SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE 48-
72 HOUR RANGE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
0DC0530A-6C7C-4C45-B9C6-97318694ECEC.jpeg

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dom|2021-4-2 17:15 | 顯示全部樓層
數值預測逐漸南下後與99S有所互動,後期被99S吞併 gfs_mslp_pcpn_io_fh114-192.gif ecmwf_z500_mslp_io_fh48-192.gif 90S_tracks_latest.png 90S_gefs_latest.png 162437sfi9jxcf9rc9j0a5.png

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dom|2021-4-3 14:10 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM將評級提升至Moderate
Another tropical low (23U) lies, to the west northwest of Christmas Island. It is likely to move south to southeast and be slow to develop. There is a Low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Sunday. It should be far enough south to have no direct impact on Christmas Island if it does develop, however shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to increase over the Island during the weekend.
During the week there is an increased risk of 23U developing into a tropical cyclone, however it should be over open waters well to the northwest of the WA mainland and well to the south of Christmas Island.
No other significant systems are expected in the region for at least the next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday: Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday:Moderate
9691FA57-C8E0-4748-8953-06A72A4000D4.jpeg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-4-3 14:36 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-4-3 15:28 編輯

JTWC升格TD
90S INVEST 210403 0600 10.6S 102.4E SHEM 25 1003
20210403.0700.himawari-8.vis.90S.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.10.6S.102.4E.100pc.jpg 20210403.0612.n20.165bt.90S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.10.6S.102.4E.075pc.jpg 20210403.020900.SH902021.amsu-b.metop-b.89V.20kts.96p96.1p0.jpg
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dom|2021-4-3 22:34 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC將評級提升至Medium
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5S 103.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 102.9E, APPROXIMATELY 168
NM WEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 030949Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION IN POTENTIAL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING
AROUND A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). A 030306Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SYMMETRIC, WEAK LLC
SURROUNDED BY 5 TO 15 KNOTS OF WIND. 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD, REMAINING
ELONGATED WHILE INTENSIFYING, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD
IN 2 TO 4 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
AAE1C46C-F067-4ABC-A15A-734B888510CC.jpeg
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