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28P 跳過TCFA直接升格

簽到天數: 1334 天

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2021-4-7 22:10 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶低壓  
編號: 13 F ( 28 P )
名稱:
20210411.0340.goes-17.vis.2km.28P.TWENTYEIGH.40kts.1002mb.24.6S.167.9E.pc.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2021 04 07 22
JTWC升格日期:2021 04 11 03
撤編日期  :2021 04 12 08
登陸地點  :


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 (FMS):15 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):40 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   :1001 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

92P.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.11.2S.154.3E
20210407.1340.goes-17.ir.92P.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.11.2S.154.3E.100pc.jpg
以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1334 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-4-8 01:34 | 顯示全部樓層
數值系集對其反應明顯,預測強度的部分GFS還是明顯較EC強些
92P_gefs_latest (2).png aus (10).png
LATEST - 2021-04-08T013258.797.jpg LATEST - 2021-04-08T013238.535.jpg
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dom|2021-4-8 09:05 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.6S 155.4E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY,
PAPUA, NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS
CYCLING CONVECTION OF AN OBSCURE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST
92P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER AN AREA OF WEAK (10-20KTS)
VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
59C43F1E-2753-43DF-89B9-6DFF36042EBA.jpeg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-4-9 04:50 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-4-9 04:52 編輯

BoM在展望中稍微地提到92P,並認為其兩天內便將離開其轄區,接下來就看FMS會不會想管這隻了
A tropical low is expected to develop close to the Eastern Region border [160 degrees East], south of the Solomon Islands from Friday. The low is expected to move southeastwards and out of the Region by late Saturday.

There are no other significant tropical lows in the Region and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:
Very Low
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Very Low
aus (11).png 92P_tracks_latest.png 92P_gefs_latest (3).png
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老農民版夜神月|2021-4-9 11:41 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC升格TD
92P INVEST 210409 0000 14.1S 156.9E SHEM 25 1004
20210409.0310.himawari-8.ir.92P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.14.1S.156.9E.100pc.jpg LATEST - 2021-04-09T114101.509.jpg
LATEST - 2021-04-09T114048.320.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-4-10 03:24 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC提升評級至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 157.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 162.4E, APPROXIMATELY
370 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091426Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE
INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20210409.1850.himawari-8.ir.92P.INVEST.30kts.1000mb.17.8S.162.2E.100pc.jpg
20210409.1426.gw1.89pct89h89v.92P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.16.3S.161.1E.85pc.jpg 20210409.1426.gw1.89hbt.92P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.16.3S.161.1E.85pc.jpg 92P_gefs_latest.png
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老農民版夜神月|2021-4-10 03:44 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC18Z將定強上調至30節,且系集預測仍有增強空間
就看機構們怎麼認定了
92P INVEST 210409 1800 17.4S 162.4E SHEM 30 1000
92P_gefs_latest.png aus.png
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dom|2021-4-10 09:03 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS編號13F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD13F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.4S 163.2E
AT 092100UTC SLOW MOVING . POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.
DEEP CONVECTION LIES PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
THE SYTEM IS LOCATED IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODEL HAVE ALSO PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWRDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
140E5533-CE02-4152-AD6E-A5F1EED1E30A.jpeg
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