老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：18 E
名稱：Terry

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2021 年 11 月 03 日 19 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 11 月 08 日 03 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 11 月 11 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：35  kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1004 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
93E INVEST 211103 0600 8.5N 86.3W  25 1008

NHC：50%

1. A low pressure system located over the far eastern Pacific more than
100 miles southwest of Costa Rica is gradually becoming better
defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity is also beginning to show
signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the
next couple of days. The system is forecast to move slowly westward
to west-northwestward away from the coast of Central America during
the next several days. Regardless of development, this disturbance
is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of
Costa Rica through today, which could result in flooding and
mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至70%/90%

1. Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure
system located over the far eastern Pacific a couple of hundred
miles southwest of Costa Rica continues to become better defined.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is also showing signs of
organization. A tropical depression is now likely to form during
the next day or two as the system moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward away from the coast of Central America.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of Costa Rica through today,
which could result in flooding and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 032000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 87.2W TO 9.6N 91.1W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
87.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N 87.5W
APPROXIMATELY 2,224 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
042000Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望調升至90%

1. Recent satellite wind data indicates that the area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of El Salvador has become
better-defined. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has become more concentrated overnight. If this
developmental trend continues, then the disturbance will likely
become a tropical depression later today. The system is expected to
move generally westward well to the south of the coast of Central
America and southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC升格18E

EP182021 - Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN

老農民版夜神月

首報上望55節不封頂

814
WTPZ43 KNHC 041449
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

The area of low pressure we have been tracking since it formed
several days ago over the southwestern Caribbean Sea has moved
over the far eastern Pacific and gradually become better-defined
over the past couple of days. In addition, the convective
organization has steadily increased. An ASCAT-C overpass earlier
this morning showed that the surface low was slightly elongated.
However, the deep convection has persisted near, or just east of
that low for several hours since that time. First light visible
satellite imagery also indicates that the circulation is
well-defined. Therefore, advisories are being initiated for
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. The ASCAT pass also showed peak
winds of 28 kt associated with the system, and a blend of the latest
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest an initial
advisory intensity of 30 kt.  

The initial motion of the depression is 280/7 kt. The cyclone is
located to the south of a broad mid-tropospheric ridge extending
across southern Mexico and much of the eastern Pacific basin. This
feature should steer the depression generally westward for most of
the forecast period, along with a gradual increase in forward speed.
By day 5, a turn to the west-northwest may occur, as the cyclone
becomes situated along the southwestern portion of the ridge. The
track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the
NHC track forecast is near the various multi-model consensus
solutions.

The environment surrounding and ahead of the depression appears
generally favorable for strengthening with ample atmospheric
moisture and SSTs of 27 to 28 degrees C. The only inhibiting factor
to strengthening may be the westerly shear vector, which although
should remain under 10 kt, when combined with the cyclone's
increasing westerly forward motion may cause convection to
periodically get stripped to its east of its center. Based on these
conditions, the model guidance indicates a slow and steady pace of
strengthening over the next several days, and NHC follows suit with
an intensity forecast near the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z  9.4N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  05/0000Z  9.6N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  05/1200Z  9.4N  92.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  06/0000Z  9.2N  93.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  06/1200Z  9.0N  95.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  07/0000Z  9.0N  97.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  07/1200Z  9.0N  99.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  08/1200Z  9.7N 104.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 11.1N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

老農民版夜神月

過去12小時型態反而明顯的轉差
要等到名字可能還需要一段時間

老農民版夜神月

結構仍然較差,風場掃描也未見起色,NHC將預測升格18E為TS的時間大幅調至48H後

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 051455
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

The convective structure with the depression this morning remains
disheveled, with only scattered convection pulsing around the
circulation without much organization. The latest subjective Dvorak
satellite estimates are T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from
SAB, while the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was T2.1/31 kt. A
blend of these data support maintaining the intensity at 30 kt this
advisory.

Early morning visible satellite imagery suggests that the system is
moving south of due west, with the latest motion estimate at 260/8
kt. As an amplified short-wave trough located over the Gulf of
Mexico propagates eastward, a mid-level ridge ridge centered near
the Baja California peninsula is expected to expand eastward over
Mexico. This feature should dominate the steering pattern over the
depression through the forecast period, leading to a general
westward motion but at a gradually accelerating forward speed.
Because the depression is quite shallow currently, low-level flow in
association with a developing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec may also assist the system in losing a bit more
latitude over the next 24-36 hours. After 48 hours, a weakness under
the ridge from an downstream disturbance may allow the depression to
gain back a bit of latitude. The track guidance remains in fairly
good agreement, though differences in speed are seen between the
slower GFS versus the faster ECMWF guidance, and another southward
shift has taken place. The official NHC track forecast is a bit
further south and a touch faster compared to the previous one,
following the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

The current poor organization of the convection argues against any
short-term intensity changes. While deep-layer (200-850 hPa)
vertical wind shear is expected to remain low, higher mid-level
shear may prevent better convective organization over the next 36-48
hours. While mid-level relative humidity is forecast to be
sufficently moist, visible satellite imagery suggests stable
stratocumulus inflow from the south, while the aforementioned gap
wind event to the north may also contribute to a less-than-optimal
thermodynamic environment. The official NHC intensity forecast now
shows no intensification over the next 36 hours with only gradual
intensification thereafter, favoring the more pessimistic guidance.
If the latest ECMWF and LGEM guidance are correct, the depression
may fail to intensify at all over the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z  9.4N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  06/0000Z  9.2N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  06/1200Z  8.9N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  07/0000Z  8.7N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  07/1200Z  8.7N  99.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  08/0000Z  9.2N 102.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  08/1200Z  9.8N 104.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  09/1200Z 10.9N 109.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 11.3N 114.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin