0908morakot

基本資料  
編號　　　　：99 B
擾動編號日期：2022 年 08 月 17 日 19 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
99B.INVEST.15kts.999mb.18N.95E

0908morakot

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0N
95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A DISORGANIZED BUT
DEEPENING AND EXPANDING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING FROM THE SOUTH
FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OVER SOUTHERN
MYANMAR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INVEST 99B TO INTENSIFY IN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL, WARM
(29C) WATERS, STRONG LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. WIND SHEAR, WHILE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLY HIGH, IS FORECAST TO
LOWER TO MORE FAVORABLE LEVELS (10-15KTS) AS THE AXIS OF STRONG
TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ) WINDS ALOFT MOVES SOUTH. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF, AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS INCLUDING
GEFS AND ECENS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT MEMBER GROUPINGS
TAKING 99B NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) AND QUICKLY
CROSSING THE NORTHERN BOB  BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
INDIA/BANGLADESH COASTLINE BY TAU 60. HIGH LEVELS OF VWS FROM THE TEJ
AREA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MODELS SUGGEST INVEST 99B WILL RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO AT LEAST STRONG TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 18/09Z發布TCFA

TPIO10 PGTW 180858

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99B (W OF MUNAUNG)

B. 18/0815Z

C. 19.92N

D. 91.66E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   DESSINO

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 19.5N 92.3E TO 21.5N 88.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 93.4E IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 180359Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS WIND SPEEDS OF
UP TO 35KTS IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TEJ, A SMALL POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT INVEST 99B WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD KOLKATA AND MAKE
LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. INVEST 99B IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. INVEST 99B IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.