霧峰追風者

基本資料  
編號　　　　：99 L
擾動編號日期：2022 年 08 月 19 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
99L.INVEST.20kts-1010mb-17.7N-90.7W

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico have become a little
better organized since yesterday. This system is forecast to emerge
into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure
could form. After that, additional slow development of this system
is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.  By Saturday night, the system is expected to move
inland over northeastern Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

霧峰追風者

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a tropical
wave located over southeastern Mexico that is expected to emerge
into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow morning. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves northwestward over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday or Saturday. However, by
Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over
northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

霧峰追風者

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche continue to become better
organized.  Environmental conditions appear favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form later
today, tonight, or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward
across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico.  However, by
Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over
northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate the system.  Interests along the northeastern coast of
Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of
this system.  Regardless of development, this system could bring
locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

霧峰追風者

升格04L

04L.INVEST.30kts.1009mb.20.4N.94W.

霧峰追風者

登陸墨西哥，無緣命名。

838
WTNT44 KNHC 210235
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042022
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data indicate
that the main vorticity center of the disturbance has moved inland
over northeastern Mexico and the associated convection has
decreased.  Based on this, the chance for development has ended and
the coastal warnings are being discontinued.  Therefore, this will
be the last NHC advisory on this system.  Additional information on
this system can be found in statements from local Weather Forecast
Offices in the United States and from the Meteorological Service of
Mexico.

The disturbance should move north-northwestward for the next 12 h
or so before it becomes absorbed in a larger weather system
developing over Texas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Locally gusty winds may occur in squalls over portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas tonight.

2. Rain from the disturbance should affect the northeastern coast
of Mexico across the state of Tamaulipas tonight and Sunday. This
rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding. The system could
also produce isolated moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of
South Texas, but significant flooding impacts are not expected
there.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 25.3N  97.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
12H  21/1200Z 26.7N  98.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
24H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven