霧峰追風者

基本資料  
編號　　　　：93 L
擾動編號日期：2022 年 08 月 31 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 09 月 08 日 20 時
93L.INVEST.25kts-1016mb-37.5N-46.6W

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone
over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles
west-southwest of the westernmost Azores.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the system drifts generally eastward.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

霧峰追風者

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 850 miles west-southwest of
the westernmost Azores has changed little in organization since
earlier today.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system
drifts generally eastward.  Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

霧峰追風者

000
WTNT45 KNHC 010839
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 01 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area over the
North Atlantic west of the Azores has developed a well-defined
circulation and convective banding in the eastern semicircle.  Based
on this structure, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Five with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

Despite the high latitude, the cyclone is in an area of light
steering currents on the southeast and south side of an anomalously
strong mid-level anticyclone.  This should result in a slow motion
for the next three days or so, with the guidance showing an eastward
drift followed by a westward drift.  After three days, the
anticyclone is forecast to move eastward and weaken as the
mid-latitude westerlies start encroaching on the system.  The
large-scale models are not in good agreement with how this will
steer the cyclone, with the GFS and Canadian showing a general
motion toward the east while the UKMET and ECMWF forecast a more
northward motion.  The track forecast is close to all of the
guidance for the first three days, and then calls for a
northeastward motion between the HFIP Corrected Consensus and the
other consensus models at days 4 and 5.

The sea surface temperatures in the area are warmer than normal -
near 27C.  This warm water, combined with a forecast environment of
light- to moderate westerly shear for the next three days or so,
should allow steady strengthening.  The intensity forecast calls for
the system to become a tropical storm later today, a hurricane in
about two days, and reach a peak intensity of 80 kt in about 4 days.
It should be noted that this forecast is close to the intensity
consensus, and there are models forecasting more intensification.  
After four days, motion over cooler water and increasing shear
should cause the cyclone to weaken.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 38.1N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  01/1800Z 38.2N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  02/0600Z 38.2N  44.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  02/1800Z 38.1N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  03/0600Z 38.0N  44.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  03/1800Z 38.0N  44.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  04/0600Z 38.2N  45.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  05/0600Z 39.5N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 41.5N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

霧峰追風者

963
WTNT45 KNHC 011444
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

A recent ASCAT pass revealed areas of tropical-storm-force winds and
the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt making the system Tropical
Storm Danielle.  Visible satellite imagery also shows convective
coverage expanding and obscuring the low-level circulation.

The initial motion of the storm is eastward at 3 kt.  The tropical
storm is located in an area of light winds and weak steering under
an omega block.  This will likely cause the system to slowly drift
around the same general area until the anticyclone weakens and a
mid-latitude trough steers Danielle poleward around day 4.  The
official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
prediction and lies between the model consensus aids.

Danielle is over an area of warmer than average ocean waters.  
Atmospheric conditions are also forecast to be relatively favorable,
with light- to moderate-northerly to northwesterly shear for the
next three days or so.  The NHC forecast calls for additional
strengthening and Danielle is expected to become a hurricane in two
days and peak in intensity in about 4 days.  When the storm moves
northward, Danielle will likely weaken as it moves over cooler sea
surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear increases.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 38.1N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  02/0000Z 38.2N  44.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  02/1200Z 38.2N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  03/0000Z 38.1N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  03/1200Z 38.0N  44.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  04/0000Z 38.0N  44.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  04/1200Z 38.5N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  05/1200Z 40.0N  43.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 42.0N  42.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

霧峰追風者

186
WTNT45 KNHC 042032
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

Danielle's satellite presentation continues to gradually improve.  
A microwave pass from earlier this afternoon showed a well-defined
band wrapping around most the center of circulation and only open
to the south.  While a scatterometer pass missed the inner core, it
did measure the periphery of the hurricane and revealed that the
tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation extended slightly less from the center than previously
estimated.  The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were both 77 kt, and therefore the initial intensity is
increased to 75 kt.

There is still about a 24-hour window in which global model
guidance suggests oceanic and atmospheric conditions should be
conducive for slight strengthening.  Danielle is expected to begin
weakening beyond 24 hours when the system traverses cooler ocean
surface temperatures and encounters stronger deep-layer wind shear.  
The official intensity forecast now shows Danielle reaching its peak
intensity in 12 hours.  The system is still expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in 5 days.

The hurricane appears to be making its anticipated turn to the
north with a motion of 360/2 kt. Over the next few days,
Danielle is expected to turn to the northeast and accelerate ahead
of a trough currently located over eastern Canada.  As the storm
reaches higher latitudes, it will likely turn east-northeastward in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar
to the previous prediction and lies closest to the correct consensus
model aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 38.5N  45.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  05/0600Z 39.1N  44.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  05/1800Z 40.2N  43.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  06/0600Z 41.2N  42.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  06/1800Z 42.1N  40.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  07/0600Z 42.9N  37.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  07/1800Z 44.0N  34.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  08/1800Z 45.9N  27.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 47.0N  19.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi