TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 13N 113E NNW SLOWLY.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.1N 113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.7E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13.0N 113.3E,
WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SURGE EVENT. A 122320Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO
DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, A 130152Z ASCAT-C
IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED, WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WITH A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED WELL
TO THE SOUTH (GREATER THAN 180 NM). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET
BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C ARE CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD VIETNAM OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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