TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 118E NW 15 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 46N 154E EAST 10 KT.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.8N 125.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 119.7E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW (05-15KTS) VWS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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