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TCFA
- WTIO21 PGTW 100200
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
- RMKS/
- 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
- 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 93.7E TO 9.6N 89.7E WITHIN
- THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
- OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
- AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092330Z
- INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E. THE
- SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
- 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N
- 93.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF
- BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS FLARING
- CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
- CENTER (LLCC). A 092305Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING
- DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
- UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES
- SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
- SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
- AS EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE
- TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
- WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
- ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
- LLCC, DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND THE EXCELLENT UPPER
- LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
- TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
- 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
- 110200Z.//
- NNNN
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