91P 近陸發展不佳對流消散

t02436 · 2014-4-21 06:35

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-25 22:30 編輯

基本資料

編號　　　　： 91 P
擾動編號日期：2014 年 04 月21日 03  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 04 月27日 14  時
　登陸地點　　：無
91P.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-8.5S-134.2E

krichard2011 · 2014-4-21 18:22

從可見光來看
螺旋的樣子雖已經可以大致看得出來
不過看一下底層
對流方面仍有很大的進步空間

krichard2011 · 2014-4-21 23:03

結構看起來似乎變得更糟了
對流幾乎消散越來越鬆散
不過GFS還是支持近岸時有機會發展

t02436 · 2014-4-21 23:45

krichard2011 發表於 2014-4-21 23:03
結構看起來似乎變得更糟了
對流幾乎消散越來越鬆散
不過GFS還是支持近岸時有機會發展

BoM 展望估計從禮拜四才有機會開始發展

Potential Cyclones:

A weak Tropical Low, 1008 hPa, is located in the northern Arafura Sea to the
north of the region. The low is expected move slowly west before entering the
Northern Region as it moves southwestwards into the Timor Sea later this week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday       Very Low
Wednesday    Very Low
Thursday       Low

BMKG短時間還是不看好

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1007 mb is observed in Arafura Sea near 8.0 S 133.0 E, about 260 km South of Banda] , and moving Southwest.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Tuesday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Wednesday (tomorrow +1): small possibility
Thursday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility

========

對流散光了= =

t02436 · 2014-4-22 11:41

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR 7.2S 132.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 212359Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK AND
BROKEN FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE IS BROAD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

複製代碼

krichard2011 · 2014-4-22 14:51

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-4-22 14:55 編輯

結構依舊鬆散
不過GFS已經連續幾報預測
這隻將在幾天後於北澳近海爆發
有機會成為一個規模不小的系統
下面這張GFS的雲量模擬風眼清晰可見

t02436 · 2014-4-23 06:41

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2S
132.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221318Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND INCREASED SYMMETRY.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.