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1502 無花果 二月奇蹟 爆發增強

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2015-2-4 14:12 | 顯示全部樓層
   中度颱風   
   編號  :  1502 ( 02 W )
   名稱  :
  無花果 ( Higos )



  基本資料     
擾動編號日期:2015 02 04 13
命名日期  :2015 02 08 02
降格日期  :2015 02 12 02

登陸地點  :


  巔峰時期資料  
 近中心最強風速
 中央氣象局 (CWB)
48 m/s ( 15 )
 日本氣象廳 (JMA) 50
  m/s ( 95 kt )
 美國海軍 (JTWC)  :115  kts  ( CAT.4
)
                                                

 最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑

 海平面最低氣壓:
935 百帕
 七級風半徑  
180 公里
 十級風半徑  :  
50  
公里

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  

94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.3N.169E





以上資料來自 :CWBJMAJTWC颱風論壇編輯製作

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我才想說,那麼大坨怎麼可能沒注意到?  發表於 2015-2-5 09:05

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參與人數 6水氣能量 +90 收起 理由
正宜27 + 25 贊一個!
king111807 + 10 贊一個!
ben811018 + 10 贊一個!
Herb + 15 年初年終 焦點都是低緯度
abcdefg60317 + 15 贊一個!

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簽到天數: 2557 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-2-5 09:49 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4N 167.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 042005Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES BROAD, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WITH NO EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY
INCLUDING A 041039Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 041827Z WINDSAT PARTIAL IMAGE
SHOW AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS),
CONVERGENT WESTERLIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD, DIVERGENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH IS FUELING LARGE, SHORT-LIVED BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. IN GENERAL, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, HOWEVER, GFS, NAVGEM AND ECMWF DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.







GFS 18Z


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-2-5 14:04 | 顯示全部樓層
提升評級至Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N
167.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 165.2E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAK, ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 050331Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS BROAD,
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME (10-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENT FLOW.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
BROAD GENERALIZED DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.









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JMA到現在連個L都沒給 JTWC則是已經先評Medium了 差好多  發表於 2015-2-5 14:22
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2015-2-6 00:12 | 顯示全部樓層

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[LV.1]初來乍到

a546c5bbb|2015-2-6 20:40 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 該帖被管理員或版主屏蔽
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-2-6 23:21 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA升TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 159E WNW SLOWLY.


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參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
abcdefg60317 + 5 贊一個!

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-2-7 08:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於22Z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 062230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.4N 158.7E TO 13.9N 156.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 158.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9N
165.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 158.3E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH
OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 061830Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT IS NOW WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072230Z.
//
NNNN





風場掃描顯示近中心風速約為25kt






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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-2-7 09:05 | 顯示全部樓層
日本氣象廳發布烈風警告
熱帯低気圧
平成27年02月07日10時00分 発表

<07日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
中心位置        北緯 9度40分(9.7度)
東経 157度40分(157.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<08日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 10度30分(10.5度)
東経 155度30分(155.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)



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