krichard2011

  五級強烈熱帶氣旋  
   編號  : 14 U ( 13 P )
   名稱  : Marcia


  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2015 年 02 月 14 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 02 月 18 日 18 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 02 月 25 日 03 時
登陸地點　　：澳大利亞 昆士蘭州

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：115  kts ( CAT.4 )
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：110  kts ( CAT.5 )
海平面最低氣壓    ：929  百帕

  討論帖圖片  
98P.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.15S.152E




以上資料來自 :BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.3S 152.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING WITH MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. A
152256Z ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALED TROUGHING ACROSS THE CORAL SEA
WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WIND FIELDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 152352Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LINEAR AND LIMITED IN DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSETTING DIFFLUENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GFS預報將擦邊澳洲東岸陸地

krichard2011

JTWC 已經發布 TCFA
紅外線雲圖現在來看 型態還算相當不錯
不過GFS不怎麼支持發展 反倒到了高緯
強度則略為增強 不過不確定那時是否還存有熱帶性質

1. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
   
2. 154.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 155.3E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
   
3. NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
   
4. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
   
5. CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS IMPROVED
   
6. ORGANIZATION IS EVIDENT IN A 162104Z SSMIS IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS DEEP
   
7. BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 162321Z ASCAT
   
8. IMAGE INDICATES A SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS WINDS.
   
9. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
   
10. (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ENHANCED
    
11. POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VWS WILL DECREASE
    
12. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
    
13. ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
    
14. TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    
15. SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

複製代碼

Meow

確定編號 14U，BoM 開始發佈警報，預計登陸前升格熱帶氣旋，日後可能連布里斯班都會影響到。



IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1904 UTC 17/02/2015
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 155.9E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [117 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  18/0000: 16.2S 155.9E:     065 [120]:  030  [055]:  997
+12:  18/0600: 17.1S 155.5E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]:  997
+18:  18/1200: 18.1S 154.8E:     075 [140]:  030  [055]:  997
+24:  18/1800: 19.1S 153.7E:     080 [150]:  030  [055]:  997
+36:  19/0600: 21.3S 151.9E:     090 [165]:  030  [055]:  997
+48:  19/1800: 23.3S 151.0E:     100 [185]:  040  [075]:  992
+60:  20/0600: 25.7S 151.3E:     140 [260]:  030  [055]:  998
+72:  20/1800: 28.0S 152.5E:     185 [345]:  030  [055]:  997
+96:  21/1800: 29.9S 154.4E:     230 [430]:            :     
+120: 22/1800: 33.9S 156.5E:     320 [590]:            :     
REMARKS:
Convection has increased significantly during the last 24 hours, with the system
showing a clear intensifying trend despite the presence of moderate to strong
easterly wind shear suggested by the 12UTC CIMSS winds.

Location of the LLCC has been difficult due to a dearth of proximal
observations. 12UTC ASCAT suggested a small area of gales in at least the
western quadrant. The system exhibits a uniform CDO on IR satellite imagery.
Applying the Central Cold Cover rule gives DT 2.5. MET and PAT agree, so final T
and CI are 2.5.

The system has been moving slowly east during the last 24 hours, however
influence from a mid-level ridge extending from the east should begin to steer
the system southwest during the next few hours, and this movement looks to be
maintained until landfall on the central Queensland coast during Thursday night
or Friday morning. NWP models suggest broadly  that moderate NE'ly shear will
persist over the system during most of this period and intensification is
expected to be slow. There is a significant possibility that tropical cyclone
intensity may not be reached.

Regardless of whether the system developes into a tropical cyclone, the pressure
gradient between the low and a high in the Tasman Sea will produce a broad area
of gales and heavy rain which will have a significant impact on the southern
Queensland coast.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

Meow

BoM 突然升格並命名 Marcia。



Details of Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 7:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 17.6 degrees South, 155.0 degrees East , 760 kilometres northeast of Yeppoon and 850 kilometres north northeast of Bundaberg .
Movement: southwest at 22 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marcia has developed over the central Coral Sea, and is slowly strengthening. During today, the system curved onto a southwesterly track, and it is expected to maintain this general motion through to landfall on the eastern Queensland coast between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay early on Friday. Marcia is expected to slowly intensify, with a high chance of reaching category 2 intensisty by landfall.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of St Lawrence and west to the Great Dividing Range.

t02436

底層掃描顯示貌似在建立眼牆!?
可見光也可略為看見風眼








風切有減弱趨勢


BoM升格二級熱帶氣旋
預計明天開始將對東部陸地造成影響
亦認為會在12小時內達到巔峰

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0104 UTC 19/02/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Marcia
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.9S
Longitude: 152.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [230 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  19/0600: 20.7S 151.3E:     040 [080]:  050  [095]:  990
+12:  19/1200: 21.4S 150.8E:    055 [100]:  055  [100]:  987
+18:  19/1800: 22.3S 150.4E:     065 [125]:  050  [095]:  986
+24:  20/0000: 23.3S 150.2E:     080 [145]:  045  [085]:  992
+36:  20/1200: 25.2S 150.6E:     100 [185]:  030  [055]: 1002
+48:  21/0000: 27.2S 151.9E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]: 1001
+60:  21/1200: 28.9S 153.4E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]: 1000
+72:  22/0000: 29.6S 154.6E:     155 [290]:  030  [055]:  998
+96:  23/0000: 30.5S 156.1E:     200 [370]:  030  [055]:  998
+120: 24/0000: 33.4S 159.6E:     290 [535]:  030  [055]:  998
REMARKS:
The system has undergone a developing trend during the last 24 hours. CIMSS deep
layer shear shows only 5 to 10 knots of northeasterly shear over the system,
consistent with recent microwave passes showing only marginal displacement of
the centre between the low and mid levels.

The satellite signature has been largely CDO-like during the last 24 hours,
showing evidence of shear reducing with a more uniform distribution of the
temperature gradient around the deep convection compared with 24 hours ago.
Confidence of the LLCC position is high given recent microwave and visible
satellite pictures, and is located more than 1 degree under the deep convection.
DT is therefore 3.5. MET is 3.0, and PAT is 3.5. Final T 3.5.

Intensity is analysed at 50 knots 10 minute mean, based on Dvorak and supported
by 23Z ASCAT pass which shows a small area of 50 knot winds in the southeast
quadrant. Surface automatic weather station obs at Marion Reef reached 42 knots
at 2120Z. A TMI microwave pass at 2106Z depicted a partially complete eye wall
with approximately 0.8 wrap, and this is reflected in the 2332 MTSAT VIS image.

Confidence in the track forecast remains high with a strong steering influence
from the mid-level ridge to the east and upper trough to the west. NWP tracks
are generally tightly clustered around a landfall near Shoalwater Bay on the
central Queensland coast early on Friday morning local time. Expect the along
track shear to remain low to moderate prior to landfall, allowing
intensification at or just below the standard rate until then. NWP models show
some assymetrization of the mid-level signature

The system has curved onto a southwesterly track in the past 12 hours, under the
dominant steering influence of a subtroical ridge to the east. The latter
feature should remain the primary steering influence, and this should see Marcia
continue a general southwesterly track with little change in forward speed up to
landfall on the central Queensland coast early Friday morning. Deterministic and
ensemble NWP models are tightly clustered in agreement with this track scenario.
Models suggest the E/NE vertical shear should remain relatively weak for the
period it spends over water, and with little change in ocean heat content under
the forecast track, this should allow the system to intensify at or just below
the standard rate up to landfall.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

Meow

寄予厚望的 Lam 一直掙扎甚至要置換了，反倒機構始終沒啥期待的 Marcia 卻搞出風眼了。

TPPS11 PGTW 190318

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (MARCIA)

B. 19/0232Z

C. 20.31S

D. 151.41E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET YIELDS A
4.0, WHILE PT YIELDS A 4.5. EYE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY, AND IS
FAIRLY CLEAR CUT, HOWEVER A JUMP OF 2.0 ON DVORAK VALUES IS
STEEP. THEREFORE, DBO PT (CONSTRAINTS OF >.5 CHANGE IN 6HRS
BROKEN)

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   18/2334Z  19.88S  152.13E  MMHS


   CHAPPOTIN

Meow

BoM 豁出去了，不僅搶先升格到強烈熱帶氣旋還直接評價 85 節，一舉超越 Lam。



Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 3:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 155 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 220 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 20.5 degrees South, 151.0 degrees East , 290 kilometres north of Yeppoon and 200 kilometres east northeast of Mackay .
Movement: west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour .

Severe tropical cyclone Marcia continues to move southwest towards the Queensland coast. The cyclone is expected to maintain this motion through to landfall between St Lawrence and Gladstone early on Friday. This very dangerous cyclone is now at category 3 intensity and continuing to intensify extremely rapidly. It is now forecast to reach category 4 by landfall.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.