B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 28.6N
145.8E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010219Z GCOM 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS WELL-
DEFINED, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SMALL, MIDGET-
SIZED LLCC WITH A LINEAR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. A 010034Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WITH A BAND OF 15 TO 20 KNOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM AND VENTING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. SST VALUES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 30 CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 011930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 29.0N 145.7E TO 30.7N 141.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 29.2N 145.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.6N
145.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO 10 KNOT WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 011200Z BYU HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A MIDGET SIZED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM AND OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 28
TO 30 CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO INITIALIZE
THIS DISTURBANCE DUE TO ITS SMALL NATURE AND WEAK VERTICAL EXTENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021930Z.//
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