正宜27

  四級颶風  
編號：10 E
名稱：Hilda


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 08 月 03 日 07 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 08 月 06 日 23 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 08 月 15 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：120  kt ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：946 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
92E.INVEST.20kts.1008mb-9.9N-115.3W


NHC:10%

1. An area of low pressure has formed along a tropical wave located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, especially by
mid-week, as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC於01Z發布TCFA




NHC隨後升格10E
巔峰上望60節

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060232
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015
800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015

Convection associated with the area of low pressure located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
has organized into a couple of bands over the northern and eastern
portions of the circulation.  Visible satellite data also indicates
that the circulation has become better defined and advisories are
being initiated on the tenth tropical depression of the 2015
eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

The depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt.  The cyclone is
expected to continue heading westward to the south of a narrow mid-
to upper-level ridge.  After 72 hours, a deepening mid-level trough
well to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to produce
a weakness in the ridge between 140W and 150W longitude. This should
result in the cyclone turning west-northwestward, then northwestward
late in the forecast period.  The dynamical models are in good
agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

The cyclone is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a low
shear environment during the next several days.  The primary
inhibiting factor appears to be some mid-level dry air to the north
of the system.  As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for
gradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days.  After 72 hours,
slightly cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing
southwesterly shear are expected to induce weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 12.5N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  06/1200Z 12.5N 131.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  07/0000Z 12.5N 133.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  07/1200Z 12.6N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  08/0000Z 12.9N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  09/0000Z 14.2N 140.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  10/0000Z 15.8N 143.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 17.8N 145.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

t02436

NHC 15Z 命名Hilda
巔峰上望C1下限

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 061449
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015
800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015

The cyclone's cloud pattern has significantly increased in
organization since late yesterday. There is now a small central mass
of deep convection, with a band on the northern side of the
circulation.  The center, according to an 1132 UTC SSM/I pass, is
also directly underneath this central convection, and the same pass
indicates increasing symmetry to the overall convective structure.
Satellite classifications from 1200 UTC were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35
kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  The initial intensity estimate
is set at the higher end of these estimates (35 kt), based on the
even greater organization seen in satellite imagery since that time.

The initial motion is toward the west or 275/11. The general
forecast scenario is for a subtropical ridge north of the cyclone to
steer Hilda westward for the next couple of days with a slight bend
toward the west-northwest after 36 hours.  In about 72 hours, the
cyclone should move around the western end of the ridge and
encounter a break in this feature at the end of the forecast period.
This pattern should cause Hilda to turn northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed by 96 hours.  The GFS-based guidance shows
a stronger ridge and a west-southwestward to westward track during
the next 2 to 3 days, while the ECMWF has a weaker ridge and a
track farther north. The official forecast is closer to the ECMWF
solution and near but faster than the previous one through 72 hours.
Overall, the NHC forecast lies to the right of the multi-model
consensus, which is dominated by the GFS guidance. After 72 hours,
the official track is near the multi-model consensus but not as far
west as the GFS/ECMWF model solutions.

Large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors are forecast to be
conducive for intensification through for the next 72 hours or so,
except for a somewhat drier lower to middle troposphere along
Hilda's path in 2 to 3 days.  When the cyclone gains latitude late
in the forecast period, it should begin to weaken due to increasing
southwesterly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough
expected to be near the longitude of Hawaii.  The official intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one through 72 hours and is
higher than the multi-model consensus, but little change was made to
the intensity forecast late in the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 12.7N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 12.9N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 13.0N 135.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 13.5N 137.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 14.1N 139.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 15.4N 144.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 17.1N 146.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 18.8N 149.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

t02436

超乎預期的發展
03Z轉交CPHC發報
評價90節 巔峰上望110節

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 080258
TCDEP5

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015

The hurricane continues to intensify at a rapid pace.  An earlier
AMSR-2 microwave overpass revealed that Hilda's inner core was
extremely compact.  In addition, visible and infrared geostationary
satellite imagery indicates that the system's eye has become better
defined, and the areal extent of cold cloud-top temperatures
surrounding the eye has increased over the past several hours.  The
current intensity estimate is raised to 90 kt, in accordance with a
Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  There is strong upper-level outflow
associated with the cyclone, particularly over the western
semicircle of the circulation.

Hilda's intensification is forecast to continue over the next 12 to
24 hours, while vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak.  In
about 48 hours, the hurricane is forecast to begin encountering
stronger shear associated with an upper-tropospheric trough near the
Hawaiian Islands. Global models predict that the shear will increase
greatly beyond 72 hours.  Therefore a weakening trend is forecast to
commence in 48 hours, with rapid weakening likely in the latter part
of the forecast period.  The official intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

The initial motion estimate is slightly north of due west, or
280/13 kt.  The track forecast reasoning has not changed much since
the last advisory.  Hilda's track should gradually bend toward the
west-northwest and northwest over the next 96 hours or so, as the
cyclone moves to the south of a mid-level ridge and approaches a
cyclonic circulation just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.
Near the end of the forecast period, the rapidly weakening system
should become a more shallow circulation, and turn more toward the
west within the low- to mid-tropospheric flow.  The official track
forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model
consensus.

Since Hilda will be moving into the central Pacific basin very
soon, future information on this system will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  08/1200Z 13.4N 141.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  09/0000Z 14.1N 143.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  09/1200Z 14.9N 145.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  10/0000Z 15.8N 147.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  11/0000Z 17.8N 149.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  12/0000Z 19.5N 151.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 20.6N 153.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

t02436

21Z評價120節，原先預估巔峰能達125節

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 13.7N 143.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  09/0600Z 14.1N 145.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  09/1800Z 15.1N 146.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
36H  10/0600Z 16.0N 148.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  10/1800Z 16.9N 149.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  11/1800Z 18.5N 150.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  12/1800Z 19.9N 151.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 20.6N 153.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

但因風眼填塞，03Z報評價115節
巔峰已正式過去未來將在複製Guillermo路徑
直奔夏威夷北部海面而去

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 14.1N 144.5W  115 KT 135 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 14.6N 146.0W  115 KT 135 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 15.5N 147.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 16.5N 148.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  11/0000Z 17.5N 149.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  12/0000Z 19.2N 150.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  13/0000Z 20.2N 151.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 21.0N 153.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

蜜露

今年CPHC突然升格至125kts
就補充希爾達的近巔峰好了
(去年正逢蘇迪勒 , 算是個冷門的颶風)