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1517 奇羅 年度第二跨洋熱帶氣旋 二十二日曲折生命史終轉化

簽到天數: 5 天

[LV.2]偶爾看看I

2015-8-18 08:37 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 asus5635 於 2015-9-19 11:56 編輯

  四級颶風 中度颱風  
編號:1517 ( 03 C )
名稱:奇羅 ( Kilo )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2015 08 18 08
命名日期  :2015 08 21 11
                         2015 09 01 15 -移交日本氣象廳發報
轉化日期  :2015 09 11 20
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中太平洋颶風中心 (CPHC) :115 kt ( CAT.4 )
中央氣象局 (CWB): 48 m/s ( 15 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) : 50 m/s ( 95 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)  : 115 kt ( CAT.4 )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓: 930 百帕
七級風半徑  : 150 公里
十級風半徑  : 50  公里

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
93C.INVEST.20kts.NAmb.7.5N.143.2W



CPHC:50%
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii remain disorganized. Environmental conditions support development over the next couple of days as the low remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.



以上資料來自:CPHC、CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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alu
今年颱風壽命超長奇羅已經活超過二十天了,如果只算西太也有十天了  發表於 2015-9-10 21:00
沒有附上定位資料......  發表於 2015-8-18 11:33

評分

參與人數 2水氣能量 +30 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 贊一個!
jwpk9899 + 15

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簽到天數: 498 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

...|2015-8-21 02:27 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 ... 於 2015-8-21 03:04 編輯
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories at 11 am HST on newly formed tropical depression Three-C, located about 700 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii or about 900 miles southeast of Honolulu.




評價HIGH 預計下報將編03C
對流爆發 有發展空間 數值預測未來可能影響夏威夷

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[LV.7]常住居民III

asus5635|2015-8-21 09:05 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 asus5635 於 2015-8-21 09:08 編輯

03C達成

---
Tropical Depression Three-CAdvisory Number 001
Issued at 1100 AM HST THU AUG 20 2015
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 11.0N 150.2W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 35 MPH...55 KM/H
Present movement: W or 280 degrees AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
---






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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

正宜27|2015-8-21 10:04 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC首報上望85KTS

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

...|2015-8-21 21:29 | 顯示全部樓層
03C KILO 150821 1200 12.5N 151.0W CPAC 35 1004


CPHC已經命名KILO

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-8-22 12:04 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-8-22 12:05 編輯

中心裸露 CPHC 03Z降格TD
預測12~24小時之後重回TS
未來將持續增強 巔峰暫時上望85節
WTPA41 PHFO 220245
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
500 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THROUGH THE DAY SHOWED THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF
KILO HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. AN EXPOSED...ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS EAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECTED BY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE 0000 UTC CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ONLY 8 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST SO IT IS SURPRISING THAT
KILO/S DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ARRESTED. TOPS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAVE ALSO WARMED AND DECREASED IN SIZE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CAME IN AT 45 KT FROM PHFO...HELD UP DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...
30 KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZATION...KILO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.


THE DETERIORATING CONDITION OF KILO MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST A
CHALLENGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM...ABOVE 29C...AND
THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FROM RAMMB-CIRA SHOWS INCREASING VALUES TO
THE WEST. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
48 TO 60 HOURS. THE MAIN INTENSITY OBJECTIVE AIDS POINT TOWARD
FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH KILO STILL BECOMING A HURRICANE. HWRF IS
THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH HURRICANE INTENSITY ACHIEVED AT 60 HOURS.
THE FORECAST IS LESS AGRESSIVE BUT STILL SHOWS KILO BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AND THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL INGREDIENTS. THIS
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. ALL OF THIS MAY BE IRRELEVANT IF KILO IS NOT ABLE TO
DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR IT/S CENTER. IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT FAILS TO OCCUR...THEN KILO WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW. WHILE SURPRISING...IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF IN THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE. KILO IS
MOVING AT 285/12 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD TO KEEP KILO ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION
IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF STILL SHOW A
NORTHEASTWARD TURN POINTED TOWARD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND LIES EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF...BUT A BIT WEST OF HWRF AND GFDL.

A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE WC-130J TOOK OFF AT ABOUT 22/0100 UTC AND
WAS ENROUTE TO KILO. THE DATA FROM THIS MISSION SHOULD PROVIDE
CRITICAL INSIGHT INTO IT/S STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. SUBSEQUENT
FLIGHTS WILL TAKE PLACE AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED IN THE ATLANTIC...A WC-130J IS ALSO
SCHEDULED TO DO A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON SATURDAY MORNING
IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 13.4N 154.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  22/1200Z 14.0N 157.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  23/0000Z 15.0N 160.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  23/1200Z 15.8N 162.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  24/0000Z 16.7N 163.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  25/0000Z 18.5N 163.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  26/0000Z 20.0N 162.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 21.5N 161.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA



海溫維持在28度以上




飛機實測稍早啟動
第一次實測最大風速為30節




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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

甜心|2015-8-24 14:59 | 顯示全部樓層
它目前的結構左右邊非常的不對稱氣流有成散條狀組織相當的貧弱,未來因為自身條件不太好整合會發展的比較慢也比較堅困。
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

blackcat|2015-8-24 15:13 | 顯示全部樓層

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