1519 梵高短暫發展中心登陸

正宜27 · 2015-9-11 09:37

本帖最後由 asus5635 於 2015-9-19 11:59 編輯

  輕度颱風
編號：1519 ( 19 W )
名稱：梵高 ( Vamco )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 09 月 11 日 01 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 09 月 14 日 03 時
停編日期　　：2015 年 09 月 15 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：越南廣南省

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：20 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：18 m/s ( 35 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)  ：35 kts ( TS )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 995 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 120 公里
十級風半徑　　： - 公里

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
92W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10N.155E

以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

s6815711 · 2015-9-11 10:24

早上才看到這團對流
過沒多久就編號

t02436 · 2015-9-11 11:58

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9N 120.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOOSELY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD TURNING. A 102359Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AROUND A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS
CURRENTLY MARGINAL, WITH MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE FLOW AND MODERATE 15-
20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THIS AREA
TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

甜心 · 2015-9-11 16:47

:o今年進入南海或生成於南海的擾動真的很少幾乎沒有，不過這隻擾動寶寶所處環境先暖後乾短期比較有利它發展進入南海中間海域後會受制於較乾的空氣氣影響發展轉緩慢。

alu · 2015-9-11 18:06

t02436 發表於 2015-9-11 11:58
JTWC評級Low

看樣子熱帶擾動或颱風短期之內對是不會影響台灣地區了

7369zy · 2015-9-12 18:14

日本氣象廳預計其於24小時內有機會發展為熱帶性低氣壓!

WYS127 · 2015-9-12 21:18

嘿嘿~南海久違的熱帶擾動
只可惜沒什麼發展空間

t02436 · 2015-9-13 14:51

06Z提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
114.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.9E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF TURNING
WITH INCREASED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. A
130231Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WINDS
WITH SOME 20 KNOTS WINDS LOCATED IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT WITH 05 TO 10 KNOTS OF VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.