1523 彩雲雲系廣闊少見JMA超大型颱風

0908morakot · 2015-9-27 11:38

  輕度颱風
編號：1523 ( 23 W )
名稱：彩雲 ( Choi-wan )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 09 月 27 日 11 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 10 月 02 日 15 時
轉化日期　　：2015 年 10 月 08 日 11 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：30 m/s ( 11 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：30 m/s ( 60 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：70 kts ( CAT.1 )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 975 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 200 公里
十級風半徑　　： 50 公里

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
99W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.9.5N.175E

以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2015-9-29 14:13

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5N 171.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. A 282233Z ASCAT PASS
FURTHER ILLUSTRATED THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC; HOWEVER, THE
AREA IS BEING ENHANCED BY A 15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY SURGE NEAR 8
DEGREES LATITUDE. THERE IS A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THE DISTURBANCE UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE PROVIDING VIGOROUS
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

alu · 2015-9-29 17:19

它還太遠搞不好要像杜鵑颱風一樣到關島附近才能發展起來也說不定，今年已經有不少遠洋在這邊發展JTWC評級升級最後因為重種原因而消散掉

正宜27 · 2015-9-30 06:28

jma預測24小時後將增強為TD

t02436 · 2015-9-30 08:50

JTWC提升評級到Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N
171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 168.4E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THERE IS A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE DISTURBANCE UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING
VIGOROUS OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

甜心 · 2015-9-30 13:38

本帖最後由甜心於 2015-9-30 13:41 編輯

:o這隻擾動寶寶目前狀況與先前的1521杜鵑颱風早期還是擾動低壓時期的情況類似，兩者都有巨大的風場跟環流唯一的不同點在於99w上面有穩定的太平洋高壓勢力供應熱能跟引導方向短期發展滿看好的。

短期內受太平洋高壓影響它會緩慢向西移動不過兩天以後太平洋高壓強度會略微減弱使它後期路徑動向產生改變，目前看來變數相當大除可能大角度北轉以外其他走向也都還不能排除暫時先觀察幾日看看。

(其他方向移動變數在於目前氣象局預報顯示本週北方系統仍然偏弱，雖然受鋒面影響太平洋高壓本週五會略微減弱但下週一開始它又將增強西伸)