開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

14P.Yalo 快速南下 短暫發展

簽到天數: 2214 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2016-2-22 10:45 | 顯示全部樓層
  一級熱帶氣旋  
編號:11 F ( 14 P )
名稱:Yalo
14P.png

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2016 02 22 08
JTWC升格日期:2016 02 25 08
命名日期  :2016 02 25 15
撤編日期  :2016 02 27 16
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
斐濟氣象局 (FMS):40 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):50 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   :993 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
14P(11F)_YALO.png

  討論帖圖片  
初始定位錯誤
92P.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.17S.166E
20160222.0010.himawari-8.vis.92P.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.17S.166E.100pc.jpg


92P.INVEST.15kts.850mb.17S.166W
92P.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.15.7S.163W

20160222.0400.himawari-8.vis.92P.INVEST.15kts.850mb.17S.166W.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

未在東經179度以東生成的熱帶氣旋,不可以說是少見的東南太平洋氣旋只能說是西南太平洋遠洋氣旋而已,到目前為止還未有熱帶氣旋是在真正的東南太平洋生成。   發表於 2016-5-31 11:50

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 贊一個!

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3043 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-2-23 00:16 | 顯示全部樓層
06Z評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0S 166.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH AN AREA OF FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION
THAT HAS JUST RECENTLY FORMED. A RECENT 211955Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SHOWING A FEW 30
KNOT WIND BARBS WITHIN THE CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
MOVING IN PHASE WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, CREATING AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG AND DO NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE
AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

92P_gefs_latest.png

20160222.1552.goes-15.ircolor.92P.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.15.7S.163W.100pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-2-23 14:49 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3043 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-2-23 18:51 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS編號11F
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 231031 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTER [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 156.6W
AT 230900UTC. TD11F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED IR/EIR MTSAT
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE OF SUPPOSED LLCC
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONE CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.   

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

92P_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 3043 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-2-24 17:53 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
sh9216.gif

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTER [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.7S 156.2W
AT 240900UTC. TD11F MOVING SOUTH AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED
IR/EIR GOES IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN RADIAL EXTENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONE CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS.   

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

92P_gefs_latest.png

20160224.0745.mtb.ASCAT.wind.92P.INVEST.30kts-1000mb.168S.1565W.25km.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-2-25 11:31 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-2-25 16:46 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-5-31 10:15 | 顯示全部樓層
麻煩修改標題,沒進入西經120度以東海域就不能稱作進入東南太平洋,這是世界氣象組織的規範。
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表