1211 海葵進入華中地區減弱為熱低壓

Zeel · 2012-8-2 08:51

本帖最後由 Zeel 於 2012-8-2 08:52 編輯

TCFA了。目前差不多以每小時7knots的速度往西北西前進。
不知道會不會補上蘇拉前進後留下的空間？

WTPN21 PGTW 012230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.3N 145.9E TO 24.2N 140.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 012200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 145.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3N
145.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES AN ORGANIZED, EXPOSED, SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED 120 NM WEST OF A CURVED BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION. MSI ALSO SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF INTENSE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY CONVERGENT WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INDICATE
CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS OF 22-26 KNOTS WITH SLP VALUES RANGING FROM
1003-1005 MB. A 012036Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED BUT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LLCC WITH WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING. RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A CONSOLIDATING, DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THE GOOD OUTFLOW IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AS VWS
DECREASES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022230Z.//

HKWCFC網主 · 2012-8-2 08:50

本帖最後由 HKWCFC網主於 2012-8-2 08:52 編輯

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3N
145.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES AN ORGANIZED, EXPOSED, SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED 120 NM WEST OF A CURVED BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION. MSI ALSO SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF INTENSE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY CONVERGENT WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INDICATE
CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS OF 22-26 KNOTS WITH SLP VALUES RANGING FROM
1003-1005 MB. A 012036Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED BUT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LLCC WITH WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING. RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A CONSOLIDATING, DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THE GOOD OUTFLOW IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AS VWS
DECREASES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.

看來是蘇拉的尾巴,
但走西北西??
路徑卻是丹瑞的

龍王 · 2012-8-2 07:21

要有3颱
也要看丹瑞跟蘇拉能不能撐到那時候

wptseng · 2012-8-2 03:55

再過1天,西太平洋就有3個颱風了~
高壓弱之後向日本的機率應大些吧?!

熱帯低気圧
平成24年08月02日04時05分発表
<02日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域小笠原近海
中心位置北緯 23度25分(23.4度)
東経 146度20分(146.3度)
進行方向、速さほとんど停滞
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
<03日03時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域小笠原近海
予報円の中心北緯 23度25分(23.4度)
東経 142度20分(142.3度)
進行方向、速さ西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

麻友飯 · 2012-8-1 22:34

MEDIUM 報文

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3N
145.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING AND
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, APPROXIMATELY SIX DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, AND THREE DEGREES SOUTH OF A COL THAT LIES
BETWEEN TWO TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELLS. THIS CURRENT
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, PAST 24 HOUR WIND SHEAR
TENDENCY SHOWS A DECREASE OF 10 KNOTS AND INDICATES AN IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. A 011104Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
BROAD CURVATURE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE LLCC. SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN
END OF AN EXTREMELY TIGHT MONSOON TROUGH, WITH AN ELONGATED LLCC. A
010222Z OCEANSAT PASS CONFIRMS THE AREA OF TIGHT TROUGHING, WITH 30
KNOT WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FAVORABLE 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SSTS
AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.