1215 布拉萬轉為溫帶氣旋結束瘋狂一生

frintezza · 2012-8-19 16:56

本帖最後由 frintezza 於 2012-8-19 16:56 編輯

JMA已升TD, 並預測往北緩慢移動

97W跟98W將更為接近
根據EC預測, 兩者都會先增強, 最後合併
JTWC對98W的報文亦指出, 98W有機會發展, 但稍後會被97W吸收
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA FROM PARA 1.A.(2), AND THIS REGION COULD BE ABSORBED INTO THAT DEVELOPING REGION.
最後, 97W會增強並往西北西移動, 令台灣飽受二連擊之苦...

麻友飯 · 2012-8-19 16:36

97w已被日本氣象廳升格TD
但並無發出任何警告
預料向北緩速移動;P

開梅 · 2012-8-19 16:13

颱風初生期時常有整併的情況在，若接踵來台讓人想到2007年帕布和梧提的情況，強度不強但來的快1

低壓 · 2012-8-19 15:41

CWB最新的一周預測圖，好像會靠近台呢，會不會連續來兩個颱風呢?有待觀察...

低壓 · 2012-8-19 14:33

從CWB的預測圖看來
97W 98W好像沒有互相影響ㄟ(距離好像更遠了)

950233 · 2012-8-19 14:23

97.98W雙雙MEDIUM!!!

西太整個熱鬧起來!

未來發展非常值得關注囉~

便當S.Denny · 2012-8-19 14:14

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
141.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 141.8E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO WEAKLY WRAP ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT 190022Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AXIS WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT NEAR THE LLCC, AND A REGION OF STRONGER
GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
RANGING FROM 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
BANDING, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND FAVORABLE SSTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

哇哇~~~升MEDIUM囉~~這下精彩了~~因為98W也升MEDIUM了~~

今年西太總算大爆發了!!(其實我在期待三巴颱風哈哈~"~