簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2012-8-17 14:20
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1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.2N 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KNOTS. A 170102Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT DOES SHOW SHARP TROUGHING. ADDITIONALLY, A 162338Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BUT SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE DEVELOPING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BUT LACK OF LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
JTWC評級為LOW囉 ~~
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