TPPS10 PGTW 090922
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF FIJI)
B. 09/0900Z
C. 20.51S
D. 179.09W
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 51NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS
BKN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
TPPS10 PGTW 091815
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF FIJI)
B. 09/1740Z
C. 23.55S
D. 177.35W
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
WTPS21 PGTW 091500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) REISSUED
CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081451ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.8S 178.9W TO 30.2S 176.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020912Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.2S 178.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 179.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 178.7W APPROXIMATELY
298 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091307Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101500Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED AMPN LINE.//
NNNN
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 52NM FROM LLCC
YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
TXPS27 KNES 091202
TCSWSP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92P)
B. 09/1130Z
C. 21.1S
D. 179.6W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...A LLCC <3/4 DEG FROM A COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET
AND PT ARE 3.0 AND FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT POSITION
OF LLCC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 091354 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5S 178.5W AT 091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 265 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD09F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST. DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF EXPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. DEPRESSION IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN, WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES YIELDING DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 24.3S 177.7W MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 27.3S 176.9W MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 30.3S 175.7W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 33.1S 174.0W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 090120 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTER [996HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.3S 179.4W AT 090000UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY REPORTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 265 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD09F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST. DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EXPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. DEPRESSION IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN, WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES YIELDING DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS: AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200UTC 21.7S 178.8W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000UTC 24.6S 178.1W MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK: AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200UTC 27.8S 177.1W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000UTC 31.1S 175.7W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD09F WILL BE ISSUED AT 090800UTC OR EARLIER.
