霧峰追風者

JTWC 03Z再次評級Low。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9N
128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 359 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND 072203Z 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE HOT TOWERS
TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE PHILIPPINES. ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (05 TO
10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SWELTERING (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ECMWF JUMPED
ON THE BANDWAGON BY AGREEING MORE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF 94W WHICH
FORMS A MORE PROMINENT CIRCULATION BY TAU 36 AND REACHES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.

t02436

評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040432Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
LOOSELY INTO A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW TO HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF 94W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
BEFORE MEANDERING IN A QUASISTATIONARY MANNER OVER THE PHILIPPINES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.