zjk369

zjk369

这好像6点登陆万吉小岛

jwpk9899

上午五點雲圖 海燕風眼已經到達某小島的邊緣了
大概在1-2小時就要登陸了(還是好強悍:L

Meow

推薦大家都讀這份報文，解釋為何 JTWC 能給 170 節。

WDPN33 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 170 KNOTS BASED ON THE 8.0/8.0 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EYEWALL HAS STARTED TO TRACK OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS OF THE PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH THE STRONG SECONDARY FEEDER BAND ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. THIS SECONDARY BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE PHILIPPINES, BUT IS STILL SUPPORTING FLOW INTO THE LOW LEVEL ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5 KNOTS), ALLOWING GOOD VERTICAL TRANSPORT AND IS SUPPORTING THE RECENT INTENSITY INCREASES OBSERVED IN EIR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND RECENT INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL WITH THE PHILIPPINES IS BEGINNING AS NOTED EARLIER WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS OF THE PHILIPPINES. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PHILIPPINES AND A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL LEAD TO INTENSITIES DECREASING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE SLOW AT FIRST AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL TO GOOD THROUGH TAU 48, BUT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY GREATER LAND INTERACTION AND LESS THAN FAVORABLE SSTS NEAR THE COAST. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 60, AND WILL CAUSE A MORE AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM THROUGH TAU 96, SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. THE TRACK OVER LAND WILL CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING AS FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS INCREASE AND GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IMPACTS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 120. BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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湘水琳琅

氣象局最新一報，仍維持63m/s，因為日本也依然維持125kts，這叫史上最強的170海燕情何以堪？

民國102年11月08日02時，強烈颱風 海燕 (編號第 30 號，國際命名 HAIYAN)，中心位置位於北緯 10.6 度，東經 127.0 度，以每小時36轉39公里速度，向西北西進行。颱風中心氣壓 895 百帕，近中心最大風速每秒 63 公尺，瞬間之最大陣風每秒 78 公尺，七級風半徑 280 公里，十級風半徑 100 公里。

Meow

James Reynolds 與友人要去對抗海燕了，祈禱這次他們一樣順利。



https://twitter.com/typhoonfury/status/398530436457963522

Meow

JTWC 的歷史性報文來了。



WTPN33 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 019   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 10.6N 127.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 127.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 11.3N 122.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 12.1N 118.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 13.1N 114.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 14.3N 111.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 17.2N 105.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 20.8N 103.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 24.3N 106.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 126.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

ben811018

完美姿態！沒有極限！
沒想到我們竟然能夠看到ＴＩＰ中的ＴＩＰ！