krichard2011

JTWC 升評 Medium
這隻螺旋性的確相當好 @@
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
154.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AS FORMATIVE BANDS
ARE WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL
OUTFLOW - ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS AREA IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
154.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AS FORMATIVE BANDS
ARE WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL
OUTFLOW - ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS AREA IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

核心區持續有對流爆出


GFS近四報差異比較
變數仍大

tzfa1979

应该是中间的那个扰动可能成。

powerng

李富城的臉書表示92w會在下周未接近台灣東南部近海。

Typhoon

92W

ekusutasii835

夏威夷大學的區域模式也有這個熱帶低壓訊號
來源:http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/ ... /main/guam12km.html
WRF 關島 12km 解析度 - 10米風場及海平面氣壓
分析時:2014070900Z
預報時:2014071200Z (72hr預報)

powerng

gfs的預報準確度比較一般，就一面倒主觀認為92w會嚴重影響台灣。

Wayne

GFS最新一報~

+216中心預估通過東北角近海

通常走這條路大概就要把地形效應考慮進來了