簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-9-11 11:58
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JTWC評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9N 120.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOOSELY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD TURNING. A 102359Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AROUND A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS
CURRENTLY MARGINAL, WITH MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE FLOW AND MODERATE 15-
20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THIS AREA
TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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