簽到天數: 815 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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martin191919|2013-8-24 22:08
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本帖最後由 martin191919 於 2013-8-24 22:09 編輯
MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
133.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF KOROR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241106Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LLCC. A 240022Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH VIGOROUS 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLIES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE AND 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR
INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOT SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS WITH A SLP VALUE
NEAR 1010 MB. HOWEVER, THE 24/00Z KOROR SOUNDING INDICATES A DEEP
LAYER OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 15000 FEET. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, VWS SHOULD
DECREASE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS INDICATED BY BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. |
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