老農民版夜神月

JTWC1200Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.0S 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070705Z GMI 87GHZ IMAGE
SHOW ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MINIMALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

FMS編號09F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 070855 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD09F CENTER [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.4S
177.8E AT 070600UTC. TD09F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.

CONVECTION IS NOW PERSISTENT IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC HOWEVER ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR.

SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 28
DEGREES.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.