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霧峰追風者|2023-8-22 23:56
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顯示全部樓層
JTWC 12Z評級Low。(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2N
128.1E, APPROXIMATELY 431 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB OKINAWA, JAPAN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220912Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE SUSPECTED LLCC. ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 91W
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY
LACKLUSTER POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE STRUGGLING TO BECOME A MEANINGFUL SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
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