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霧峰追風者|2023-8-27 14:12
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(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.5N 143.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 143.5E, APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF SHARP TROUGHING WITH PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
WARM (29-30 C) SST, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 93W WILL TRACK SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WITH STRONG MONSOONAL
FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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