JTWC對其發布FINAL WARNING，但認為隨著短波槽接近，極向流出有改善的可能，72小時後有重新發展的趨勢

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) FINAL WARNING RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 014 RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 86.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 86.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 10.9S 85.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 85.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 846 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH ISOLATED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 220328Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS WEAKLY-DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE
LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER
DATA AS WELL AS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 (30
KNOTS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 THEN WILL TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD.
OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGENERATE NEAR TAU 72. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 10 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED PREVIOUS WARNING LOCATION
BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.//
NNNN

數小時前的可見光，LLCC完全暴露，深層對流不復存在
入夜後的紅外線雲圖上則出現一小片對流雲系

真厲害的路徑:lol

顛峰美圖

1.現在底層有轉好的現象

2.冷水翻情形減低了.

3.附近周遭的風切有點強.

4.OHC目前位置很低,但不排除,還有一次巔峰

NASA拿了我的Emeraude照片完整發到他們的網站上，而且都是3600×4800像素和5,361,294位元組！:lol

http://www.nasa.gov/feature/godd ... uthern-indian-ocean

Emeraude中心繼續近似滯留，04Z強度下調105KTS


原本協助它快速增強的高層流出，現下反倒造成風切增強，因此風眼填塞、底層也崩了













除了本身長期滯留逐漸把冷水攪上海面，東邊還有個冷渦等著它...




未來環境有逐漸轉好的趨勢，強度可望再次回升，但要再創高峰難度不小