B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0S 159.2W,
APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST OF BORA BORA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CIRCULATION LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PATTERN IS LESS THAN OPTIMAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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