HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016
After an early morning burst of deep, cold-topped thunderstorms over
the center, dry air entrainment has once again taken its toll on the
inner-core convective structure of Celia. The CDO has eroded due to
a narrow band of dry air wrapping all the way into the center, which
is noted in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Celia
has now taken the appearance of a tropical cyclone with a banding
eye feature. Dvorak estimates are T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65
kt from SAB, and the consensus of various objective satellite
intensity estimates is 70 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set to 70 kt, making Celia the second hurricane of the
2016 eastern North Pacific season. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii are
based on 1808Z ASCAT-B wind data.
The initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Celia should move westward for the next 24 h along the southern
periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, followed by turn to the
west-northwest on day 2 as a shortwave trough briefly weakens the
ridge. By day 3 and beyond, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen
and force Celia back on a westward track. The latest NHC model
guidance is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so
the new forecast is basically just an update of the previous
advisory and lies close to the TCVE consensus track model.
Celia still has another 24 h or so to strengthen while the vertical
wind shear remains light and sea-surface temperatures are above
26.5C. By 48 h, decreasing SSTs ahead of the hurricane should induce
gradual weakening, but not as fast as normal due to the light shear
conditions that are expected to continue through day 5. The NHC
intensity forecast remains above the intensity consensus model IVCN,
and continues to follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
900 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016
The cloud pattern of the tropical depression has become better
organized, with first-light visible imagery showing a ragged central
dense overcast surrounded by a complex of outer bands. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates are 30-35 kt, while AMSU and Advanced
Dvorak technique estimates from CIMSS are near 50 kt. Based on
this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Celia with winds
of 40 kt.
The initial motion is 275/6. There is little change from the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Celia should be
steered westward with an increase in forward speed by a building
subtropical ridge to the north through the next 2 to 3 days. After
that time, a west-northwestward turn is forecast as the system
nears the southwestern edge of the ridge. The guidance has nudged
a little to the north for the first 36 hours or so, and thus this
part of the forecast track is also adjusted northward. Otherwise,
the track is an update of the previous NHC advisory.
Celia is forecast to be in an environment of light vertical wind
shear for the next 3-4 days. However, during the next 24-36 hours
the cyclone will pass near or over an area of cooler sea surface
temperatures left in the wake of Hurricane Blas. This should slow
intensification during this time. The storm is expected to reach
warmer water from 36-96 hours and significant strengthening is
expected at that time. The intensity forecast calls for a peak
intensity of 90 kt, which is below that forecast by the SHIPS and
LGEM models. From 96-120 hours, Celia should again encounter cooler
sea surface temperatures, which should cause the cyclone to weaken.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 525 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, are showing some signs of organization. Continued
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves
westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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