NHC根據半夜的實測將強度調升至50節

000
WTNT45 KNHC 060243
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

The convective pattern of Earl has changed little in both
conventional and microwave satellite imagery since the last
reconnaissance flight a few hours ago. Therefore, the initial
intensity is being maintained at 50 kt for this advisory. Earl
should begin to weaken shortly after the center moves inland, and
continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. The cyclone could
degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours if it moves a little
faster than currently forecast, which would cause greater
interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico.

Earl continues to move westward at about 275/07 kt. This general
motion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours, and Earl is
expected to make landfall about midway between Veracruz and
Alvarado, Mexico within the next hour. The official forecast track
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies slightly north of
the consensus model, TVCN.

The main threat from Earl will continue to be heavy rainfall that
could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of
Central America and southeastern Mexico.  The Mexican Weather
Service (SMN) recently relayed reports of additional rainfall totals
of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) since 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning
across portions of south-central Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 19.0N  95.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR VERACRUZ
12H  06/1200Z 19.0N  96.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
24H  07/0000Z 19.0N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
36H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

稍早中心已經登陸墨西哥維拉克魯茲州

...EARL MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...

稍早中心進入坎佩切灣，將馬上再度登陸，以TS下限進入墨西哥。
另外，Earl的第8次飛機實測已經在剛剛正式起飛，稍晚NHC將從回傳資料研判是否再調整強度。

000
WTNT45 KNHC 051432
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a large
portion of the circulation is over the southern Bay of Campeche. It
appears that the cloud pattern was beaten hard by the terrain,
but, one can still see a vigorous cyclonic rotation. This was also
confirmed by this morning's radiosondes from the area.  I prefer
to keep the initial intensity generously at 35 kt at this time, and
then adjust it, if necessary, when an Air Force reconnaissance plane
checks the system later today.  Little change in intensity is
expected before Earl moves inland again later today or tonight.
The cyclone is forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the high
terrain of southern Mexico.

The circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt.
A westward or south-of-due-west track is anticipated until
landfall and beyond. There has not been a change in the guidance,
and the NHC forecast is similiar to the previous one.

The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a
large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the
combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre
over the area enhances the rainfall potential. The Mexican Weather
Service (SMN) relayed to NHC that about 7 inches (180 mm) of rain
were measured in Chiapas during the last 24 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 18.6N  94.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 18.7N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H  06/1200Z 18.5N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

登陸了貝里斯 , 當地帶來一些樹木頃倒和積水

稍早中心已經登陸貝里斯

** WTNT35 KNHC 040556 ***
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
100 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

...CENTER OF EARL MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BELIZE CITY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

NHC於05Z(登陸之前)根據穿心7次的實測結果，將強度提升到70節、979百帕。

** WTNT65 KNHC 040454 ***
TCUAT5

HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1200 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS EARL NOW HAS 80 MPH WINDS...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds in Earl have increased to near 80
mph (130 km/h). The hurricane is expected to make landfall in the
next couple of hours near Belize City, Belize.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

NHC 00Z升格C1，將在稍後登陸貝里斯，橫越猶加敦半島進入坎佩切灣之後有微幅增強的機會。

000
WTNT45 KNHC 040253
TCDAT5

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

Earl has been under close surveillance by Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter planes and the Belize Meteorological Service radar
this evening.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found peak 700 mb
flight-level winds of 72 kt which converts to a surface wind of 65
kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity. Belize radar
imagery shows that the eyewall has been fluctuating between an open
and closed structure over the past several hours. There is little
time left for Earl to strengthen before the center reaches the
coast, and no significant intensification is anticipated before
landfall.  A steady weakening trend will commence after the
tropical cyclone moves inland.  Based on the latest track
guidance, the center is forecast to only barely emerge into the
extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and this should limit
reintensification at that time.  Earl is expected to become a
remnant low and dissipate over the high mountains of south-central
Mexico by the weekend or sooner.

Earl continues to move slightly north of due west or 280/13 kt.
The cyclone remains embedded in a well-defined steering flow to the
south of a large and slow-moving mid-tropospheric high pressure
system.  Little change has been made to the previous official
forecast track and the current NHC forecast remains close to the
multi-model consensus.

After landfall, the biggest concern with Earl is rainfall.  Global
models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much
larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico
in a couple of days.  This weather pattern will likely lead to
copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches
possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 17.4N  87.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  04/1200Z 17.7N  89.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
24H  05/0000Z 18.2N  91.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
36H  05/1200Z 18.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  06/0000Z 18.8N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H  07/0000Z 20.0N  98.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Earl的第7次飛機實測進行中，目前測得10秒平均飛行層面風速最大72節；10秒平均SFMR海平面風速最大77節。

025730 1730N 08746W 6969 03054 9915 +112 +096 063070 071 077 007 03
025800 1732N 08747W 6970 03063 9925 +113 +082 064071 072 063 005 03

貝里斯雷達與底層，底層風眼已經很明顯了

稍早疑似有閉合圈出現，NHC正式命名Earl

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.

飛機實測持續進行中，目前錄得45節以上風力

000
WTNT45 KNHC 021557
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
strong wave we have been tracking for days has developed a closed
circulation center with an estimated pressure of 1001 mb. On this
basis, advisories on Tropical Storm Earl have been initiated.  This
is the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season.

The overall convective pattern was a little less organized this
morning, but recent images indicate that an area of deep convection
is forming near or over the center. The upper-level outflow is not
well established yet in all quadrants due to some shear. Most of
the global models show that the upper-level environment should
become more favorable with less shear. The NHC forecast calls for
some intensification, and Earl is expected to be near hurricane
strength by the time the center approaches the Yucatan peninsula.

Earl has been moving westward rapidly around 19 kt embedded within
very strong easterly flow around the periphery of the Atlantic
subtropical high. The ridge extends westward across the southern
United States, and this pattern should maintain the cyclone
on a general westward track across Belize and Yucatan during the
next couple of days. After that time, a weakened Earl should move
over the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The cyclone
should slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours since the steering
currents are expected to be weaker. Most of the dynamical guidance
agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows
the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1600Z 16.3N  80.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 16.3N  82.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 17.0N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 17.5N  87.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 18.0N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
72H  05/1200Z 19.2N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H  06/1200Z 20.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila