B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 25.9N 148.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY
350 NM NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, MICROWAVE PASSES FROM A 250416Z NOAA-19 89GHZ
CHANNEL AND A 250246Z NPP 88.2GHZ CHANNEL DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED
BANDING SHEAR EASTWARD OF THE ELONGATED LLCC, EVIDENT IN A 250020Z
25KM METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HIGHEST WIND
SPEEDS (25 TO 30 KNOTS) IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE 5 TO 10 KNOT LLCC
AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC
IS IN AN AREA OF NEUTRAL EXHAUST AND UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD AND DUE TO THE
DETERIORATED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.
JMA 06Z、09Z維持LPA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1000 HPA NEAR 28N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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