(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.7S 179.2E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING.
A 202132Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT UNDU POINT (91652) SHOW SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 21 KNOTS WITH A SLP VALUE OF 1002.7MB. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST. THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD, AWAY FROM FIJI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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