JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
32.7N 170.6E, APPROXIMATELY 677 NM NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY ATOLL.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OBSERVED IN A 291002Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
REGION OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN A VERY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (40-50 KNOT). MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE 48-72HRS AND
NOT TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

JTWC另編同時，JMA判定轉化溫帶氣旋並對北側發佈GW。

GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 40N 160E 45N 165E 37N 178E 32N 170E 40N 160E.
...
LOW 1010 HPA AT 33N 170E NW 15 KT.

基本資料   
編號　　　　：96 W
擾動編號日期：2017 年 07 月 29 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 07 月 00 日 00 時
96W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.32.7N.170.6E

發佈風警報。

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 24.0N 173.4E SEA AROUND OF WAKE ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

t02436 發表於 2017-7-26 21:54
NRL根據傍晚的風場掃描，12Z直接評價40節，只不過認定為副熱帶風暴。

JTWC 14Z評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
23.6N 173.8E, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE
SYSTEM IS ACCESSED AS SUBTROPICAL DUE TO THE UNIQUE NATURE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING ABOVE THE SYSTEM WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY, DRY AIR IS WRAPPING INTO
THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD, ELONGATED, AND EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261007Z ASCAT METOP-A PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A PATCH OF 35-40
KNOT WIND BARBS DEPICTED 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, BEING
SHEARED TO THE EAST. AT THIS TIME, THE DISTURBANCE HAS GOOD OUTFLOW
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTH, SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NRL根據傍晚的風場掃描，12Z直接評價40節，只不過認定為副熱帶風暴。

WP, 93, 2017072612,   , BEST,   0, 236N, 1738E,  40,  993, SS,  34, NEQ,    0,  105,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

TPPN14 PGTW 261234

A. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NE OF WAKE ISLAND)

B. 26/1200Z

C. 23.82N

D. 173.35E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. ST1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. SUBTROPICAL METHOD
YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. DBO ST METHOD.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   26/0721Z  24.00N  173.75E  MMHS


   MARTINEZ

JMA 06Z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 24N 173E EAST SLOWLY.