B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
23.1N 175.0E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 020921Z AMSU-B METOP-A 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LLCC WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A PRIMARILY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS),
HOWEVER THIS IS OFFSET BY VERY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE
NEARBY TUTT CELL AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
DISTURBANCE. NVGM SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE MOVING TO THE NORTH WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONSOLIDATION WHILE GFS SHOWS IT TRACK TO THE EAST,
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AROUND TAU 120 AND THEN TRACK TO
THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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