22Z評級提升至Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4S 87.7E, APPROXIMATELY 915 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081302Z
SSMIS METOP-A 91GHZ DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
080352Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATES 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 20-25 ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL WITH
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 20-25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-30 CELSIUS.
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM IN A
SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND INDICATES STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. BECAUSE THIS DISTURBANCE IS JUST BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.