評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.7S
85.9E, APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081255Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 CELSIUS), HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH CONSOLIDATION LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.