最新報改登陸，但將會是以熱帶低壓的強度登陸。

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Satellite images suggest that Pilar is maintaining its strength
this evening.  The center of the system is difficult to locate, but
extrapolation of earlier microwave data and current geostationary
images suggest that it is located just to the north of Las Islas
Marias.  The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, though some
of the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that this could
be a little conservative.

Pilar is very close to the coast, and the models either show the
tropical cyclone moving inland or staying just off the coast of
western Mexico.  This land interaction combined with an increase in
south-southwesterly shear should cause the storm to weaken to a
tropical depression on Monday, and dissipate in a couple of days or
less.  It should be noted that if Pilar does move inland, it could
dissipate sooner than shown here.

A long term motion has been northward at 8 kt.  A slower north to
north-northwest motion in the low- to mid-level flow is expected
until the system dissipates.  This track forecast lies closest to
the ECMWF and UKMET models.

The main hazard associated with Pilar is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, over the states of Nayarit and the southern portion of
Sinaloa during the next day or two.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 21.8N 106.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 22.6N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 23.4N 106.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  26/1200Z 24.0N 107.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
48H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

命名Pilar，或許一生將巧妙避開所有陸地:o

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The structure of the cyclone near Mexico has improved over the past
6 hours.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB now support
an estimated intensity of 35 kt, so the system is now classified as
Tropical Storm Pilar.

The initial motion based on recent satellite fixes is 350/4 kt.
Pilar is still expected to move generally toward the north-northwest
or north to the east of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico for
the next couple of days, and the primary source of uncertainty in
the forecast is possible interaction with land.  Due in part to
initial position uncertainty, the global models vary on whether
Pilar will clip the coast of Jalisco or remain just offshore, but
the model consensus now shows a landfall in about 24 hours.  The
NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the east toward the
model consensus, but it is certainly possible that the tropical
storm could remain offshore and enter the Gulf of California.
Regardless of whether the center makes landfall or not, heavy rain
is still likely along the coast of Mexico through early next week.

The possibility of land interaction makes the intensity forecast
particularly difficult.  Very warm SSTs and only moderate shear
should allow for some strengthening for at least the next 36 hours.
However, if Pilar makes landfall sooner than that, it will likely
quickly weaken.  Since my track forecast shows Pilar making
landfall in about 24 hours, my intensity forecast peaks at that
time, and shows steady weakening thereafter.  Beginning around 48
h, the GFS and ECMWF show that the shear will increase
substantially, which should cause Pilar to quickly become a remnant
low, even if it remains over water.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 18.7N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/1200Z 19.3N 105.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  25/0000Z 20.3N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  25/1200Z 21.1N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  26/0000Z 21.9N 105.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  27/0000Z 23.3N 106.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  28/0000Z 24.7N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN

JTWC 00z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 212200MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 101.2W TO 21.0N 109.4WWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 18.0N 104.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13KNOTS.2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18N104.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1130 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATEDENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATIONASSOCIATED WITH FLARING CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY HAS BECOMEMORE ORGANIZED BUT REMAINS ELONGATED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ISFAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WEAKWHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE. SEA SURFACETEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICALMODELS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CIRCULATION AS IT TRAVELSTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATEDAT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICALCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY222200Z.//NNNN