(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 84.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH MULTIPLE MESO-VORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE
CENTER. A 150342Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
NORTH QUADRANT. A 150318Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 84.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED
BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING, WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES, TO THE
SOUTH OF CONVECTION. A 141101Z 89GHZ GPM IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH, AND LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WRAPPING INTO A
LOOSELY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 90B IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR (10-15 KT), WITH INCREASED
SHEAR TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT TURN POLEWARD, SETTING UP A
RIDGING PATTERN OVER 90B. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE IN THE BAY OF BENGAL (27-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL DYNAMIC
MODELS PREDICT WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD, BEFORE FORECASTED TO MOVE ASHORE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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