1215Z評級提升至Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.0N
137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. A 160920Z SSMIS
91GHZ AND A 161025Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH DEPICT A LARGE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CURVE AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE DIVIDED ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.