18Z判定中心出海，將逐漸南下轉化溫氣。WTIO31 FMEE 171850 
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本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-16 16:22 編輯 06Z判定登陸馬達加斯加-瑪索拉半島。 WTIO31 FMEE 160647 
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MFR 18Z強度升"強烈熱帶風暴"，預測路徑比預期還要深入內陸。
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本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-15 16:26 編輯 MFR 06Z命名"Eliakim"，巔峰上望強烈熱帶風暴，將直襲馬達加斯加。 WTIO31 FMEE 150626 
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WTXS31 PGTW 150300MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140251ZMAR2018//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 55.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 55.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.9S 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.4S 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.7S 50.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.9S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.3S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.1S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 24.0S 52.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ---REMARKS:150300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 54.6E.TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NMNORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKEDSOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 142303Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT TO THE EAST AND GOOD DIVERGENCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 60 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION. ALSO AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, EXITING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. ONCE OUT OVER WATER, TC 14S WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TRACK DIRECTION WITH LARGE VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 140300).//NNNN |
強度升熱帶低壓第7號，巔峰上望60KT。
CMRSF_201803141200_2_7_20172018.pdf
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MFR 編號07-20172028，趨向馬達加斯加北部，登陸前上望強烈熱帶風暴。
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