(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
73.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 75.5E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A FORMATIVE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE EAST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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