WTIO22 FMEE 230620
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/04/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/04/2018 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 52.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/23 AT 18 UTC:
17.3 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/04/24 AT 06 UTC:
19.9 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 51.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 50.6E, APPROXIMATELY 705
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 220252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE
DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH DISTINCT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH AT APPROXIMATELY
TAU 24 WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF
MADAGASCAR AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
組圖打開中，請稍候......