JTWC 09Z評級降低至Low,昨天一度分析到T2.0,今天消散許多…

    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 177.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 176.8E, APPROXIMATELY
160 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200651Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH SPARSE CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST. VWS IS CURRENTLY HIGH (25-30KTS) OVER 94P AND
IS INCREASING STEADILY. SSTS REMAIN WARM (27-28C) AND ARE CONDUCIVE
TO DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF, NOW MAINTAINING WEAK
TROUGHING TRAVELLING SOUTH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

JTWC 05Z評級提升至Medium

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.2S 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 180339Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
LLCC. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WESTERLIES, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING POLEWARD HOWEVER, THE
MODELS HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

FMS 編號"14F"

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 172358 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD14F CENTRE [1007HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S
178.0E AT 172100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR
HIMAWARI-8 VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.