Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018
The intensification trend of Fabio appears to have ended. Several
hours ago, satellite images showed a ring of cold cloud tops
surrounding a distinct eye. However, more recent data indicate that
the structure of Fabio has deteriorated with a pronounced dry slot
evident on the east side of the circulation. Blending the latest
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin support holding the initial wind speed at 95 kt, but this
could be a little generous.
Fabio is currently over marginally warm 27 degree C waters, but it
is headed for much cooler waters during the next several days. These
unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable airmass
and an increase in southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening
through the forecast period. Fabio is forecast to weaken below
hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours, and it is predicted to become
a remnant low by 96 hours. The intensity models are in fair
agreement, and the NHC forecast lies between the HCCA and ICON
consensus aids.
The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 13 kt. There
is no change to the track forecast reasoning. Fabio is expected to
continue west-northwestward to northwestward at about the same
forward speed during the next few days while it moves on the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the
forecast period, when Fabio is a weak and shallow system, the
cyclone is predicted to slow down as it becomes more influenced by
the low-level flow. The track models remain in good agreement, and
the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018
Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with
Tropical Depression Seven-E has become better organized, with very
cold cloud tops near and west of the center along with a large area
of outer banding. A recent GMI overpass suggests that the system
has not yet developed a tight inner core. However, the various
satellite intensity estimates are now 35-45 kt. Thus, the cyclone
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fabio with a possibly conservative
initial intensity of 35 kt.
The initial motion is 285/11. The track guidance is in good
agreement that Fabio should move west-northwestward on the
southwest side of the subtropical ridge for the next several days,
with a turn toward the northwest near the end of the forecast
period. There has been little change in the guidance since the
previous advisory, so the new forecast track is an update of the
previous forecast that lies near or just north of the model
consensus.
Fabio should be over warm water and in an environment of light
vertical wind shear for the next 72 h or so, and steady to rapid
strengthening is expected during that time. There remains some
spread in the guidance, with the HWRF model continuing to show less
intensification than the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM
models. The new intensity forecast will again trend above that of
the previous forecast, with steady strengthening during the first 24
h followed by rapid strengthening from 24-48 h. It should be noted
that the forecast intensities through 72 h are lower than the SHIPS
and LGEM models, and they are in best overall agreement with the
HCCA consensus model. After 72 h, Fabio should move over steadily
decreasing sea surface temperatures and weaken quickly.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, continue to become better organized. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development over the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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